#56: Not Assuming The Worst

FINGER ON THE RED BUTTON!

On October 27, 1962, one man, Vasili Arkhipov, quite literally saved the world. Tensions were boiling over between the USA and the Soviet Union, after the discovery of Soviet missile bases in Cuba. The world was on the brink of all out nuclear war and both sides were playing a dangerous game of cat and mouse.

On this fateful day, in the waters off Cuba, Soviet submarines were in a standoff with American destroyers. The USS Beale began to drop blank depth charges to warn the B-59 submarine off. 

The Americans had informed the Soviet leaders, but due to a lack of radio communication, the submarine crew themselves had no knowledge of this. 

With constant explosions above them, the submarine captain Valentin Savitsky, assumed the worst – that war had been declared and they were under attack.

Unbeknownst to the Americans, the B-59 was furnished with a Hiroshima sized 10-kiloton nuclear tipped missile. In the heightened stress of the time, any nuclear submarine strike would have led to immediate escalation, with both superpowers launching nuclear warheads within minutes, killing millions and bringing civilisation to its knees.

If the stakes weren’t high enough, conditions on the submarine were brutal with temperatures reaching an unbearable 50 degrees Celsius. An exhausted Captain Savitsky, alongside his second in command, Ivan Maslennikov, ordered the readying of the nuclear missile for launch.

The rules however required all 3 commanding officers to give the go ahead, and the coolheaded Arkhipov said no. He argued that the depth charges kept missing on the left and right and were likely warning shots. 

After several heated exchanges, Arkhipov finally managed to convince the irate captain to return to the surface. The situation was diffused, and the submarine returned to safety.

How close the world came to nuclear apocalypse only came to light four decades later, in 2002, when Soviet records were declassified. If not for the unflappable Vasili Arkhipov, the world as we know it would not exist! Source

WISDOM 💎

“Hanlon’s Razor teaches us not to assume the worst intention in the actions of others. Understanding Hanlon’s Razor helps us see the world in a more positive light, stop negative assumptions, and improve relationships.”

Shane Parrish

Tip 1 - A SMART PLAY ✅

When emotions are high, it is easy to jump to conclusions in the moment, which generally leads to bad decision making.

Tip 2 - AVOID 🚩

Impulsivity with big decisions – often you have longer to decide than you think.

Tip 3 - ACTION 💪

Next time you’re ready to confront someone or escalate a situation, ask yourself – ‘Have I got enough information to be sure of what I’m about to do?’