#64: Results Aren't Everything

In 2020, Joe Biden won the US election handily with a convincing 306-232 tally in the electoral college vote. Delve a little deeper however, and we see that Biden won three states with very fine margins, taking Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin each by only a few thousand votes.

If just 21,000 voters changed their minds in those states, then the overall result would have been a tie and Trump would have likely secured his second term. With a population of 330 million, this means that the whole election result hinged on just one person in every 10,000 voters.

In 2016, the opposite dynamic played out with Hillary Clinton losing several tight states allowing Trump to triumph 304 to 227. Again, a relatively small number of votes – only 40,000 changing hands would have flipped the result for the Democrats.

It’s counter-intuitive how seemingly convincing wins, rested on razor-thin margins. It’s due to the mechanics of the electoral college system, where each state has a designated number of electoral votes depending on population size. For example, California receives 54, Texas 40 and Alaska just 3. 

Whoever wins each state gains all of these electoral votes, even if that state is won by a single vote! The state wins are totalled up for each candidate and the first to 270 total, wins the White House. Great vid explaining it!

This explains why Harris and Trump are currently campaigning exclusively in the seven key swing states. It’s very possible that come early November, the whole election will hinge on just a few thousand people in Georgia or Pennsylvania.

We often see similar tight finishes in elite sports. 1/33rd of a second, separated Noah Lyles winning gold and Akani Simbane not even medalling in the men’s 100 metre Olympic final. Whole careers defined by the blink of an eye or a tenth of a percentage point.

WISDOM 💎

“Concentrate on what will produce results rather than on the results, the process rather than the prize”

Bill Walsh

Tip 1 - A SMART PLAY ✅

The media and armchair fans obsess about results, but the outcome is not the whole truth. Especially in close events, a point here, a moment there, or often just a stroke of luck or timing can prove to be all the difference. To improve, try to focus more on the quality of the process and performance, than purely the result.

Tip 2 - AVOID 🚩

Being defeatist. Often losing a final first, proves to be the missing piece of the puzzle for a champion side. We saw that when Jordan’s Chicago Bulls lost twice, before finally getting past the Pistons on the way to six championships.

Or in the NRL grand final when Penrith lost a tight one to Melbourne in 2020, before becoming the first team in the modern era to win three in a row.

Tip 3 - ACTION 💪

However, cruel it feels in the moment, there is tremendous power in using a close loss in sport or work as motivation and inspiration to propel you forward. Not only that, but the story is also better, and the victory is sweeter when you finally prevail.