#8: Thinking Beyond The Obvious

KEYS FOR SUCCESS

It’s 5.45am on a December morning, 1979 in Pretoria, South Africa. Apartheid opposing political prisoners Tim Jenkin and Stephen Lee are crouched down in front of the final obstacle between themselves and freedom. They’ve made their way through 14 giant steel doors, hid in a storeroom to avoid the night guard, and must only unlock this last wooden door to escape! 

It won’t open though and only minutes remain before the guard returns.

Frantically, Alex Moumbaris the 3rd budding escapee grabs the chisel and starts gouging into the wood behind the lock. The door doesn’t budge and disaster - the chisel slips, making a frightening sound. Instantly, their heartbeats stop. Surely the night warden, only 20 metres away, has heard. But nothing happens. 

Finally, the door gives way and the sweet air of freedom wafts in. Sneaking tentatively forward into the warm morning sun, they quickly disappear into the deserted back streets -- and are never caught!

How did they escape through 15 doors in South Africa’s highest security prison?

By thinking beyond the obvious and observing the world around them. For months, Tim Jenkin had amazingly been fashioning wooden keys in his cell, purely by taking sharp glances at the guard’s keys. He had acquired an old broom handle allowing him to turn the key from his cell. 

Then at night-time they progressed past locked doors, testing keys, taking new lock impressions and gathering information about guard movements. After 12 months they were ready.

Top Investor, Howard Marks in his book ‘The Most Important Thing’, highlighted that thinking beyond the obvious is vital for success in competitive fields. You need to observe what the majority are thinking and start to uncover what they and therefore the market is missing. He called this ‘second-level thinking’. 

He explains ‘First-level thinkers look for simple formulas and easy answers.’ Second-level thinkers go much deeper, embracing the complexity and the grey. They remain intuitive and adaptive. With chatGPT, for example first level thinkers might think, this is everywhere let's use it. Second-level thinkers might ask, how and when should we use the technology and where can we stand out by not using it?

If you want to be a high performer in any field, to some degree you'll have to think and behave differently to the majority. Unconventionality is not enough though; you also need to make superior judgments more often than not. Essentially, 'Different and Better'

WISDOM 💎

‘Everything should be made as simple as possible but not simpler’.

Albert Einstein

Tip 1 - A SMART PLAY ✅

Thinking beyond the obvious, is more about how to think, rather than what to think. It involves deep work, opening your eyes and seeing opportunities that others haven’t. Then acting with a combination of patience and decisiveness.

Tip 2 - AVOID 🚩

Seeking quick fixes and shortcuts. The world is obsessed with hacks and cheats. Most of the greats got there with superior thinking and superior work. This takes time.

Tip 3 - ACTION 💪

What does the consensus think in your field? What interesting questions might you explore to open your mind to possibility? What are the keys that will unlock your opportunities?

‘Reality is not neat, not obvious, not what you expect.’

CS Lewis