#19: Taking Chances - The Biggest Betting Coup Ever

YELLOW SAM

It’s June 1975 in a sleepy Irish village, named Bellewstown - the sort of place where time stands still. Yellow Sam is pounding through the turf, approaching the second last, ahead of the pack. 

Barney Curley, watching through binoculars and hidden from view in a gorse thicket, has spent all year meticulously plotting this very moment. In 30 seconds, he will know if he’s pulled off the greatest betting coup ever.

Barney, a shrewd judge is already feared in Irish bookmaking circles. Unfortunately, though he has hit a rough patch and owes 10,000s to those very bookmakers. He decides his only option left is to go for a big win and the horse chosen is ‘slow and steady’ Yellow Sam. He’s never finished better than 8th, though Curley believes he could win a mediocre race, in the right conditions.

Barney locks himself away for 6 weeks to find a suitable race and orchestrate the coup. The unfancied horse will likely be a big price, but as soon as Curley’s money comes down, this price will evaporate, reducing any chance of a big win. Barney has a genius plan though…

It’s race day and Barney has arranged 100s of people to be ready all over Ireland. Each has a brown envelope with cash and instructions – no one can open until given the green light. 

At 2.30pm, with 30 minutes to go, Barney makes 7 calls saying it’s time. These 7 anchors then phone several others. Every man is to go into a different bookie and place 50 quid on Yellow Sam. This gets the money down, but the masterstroke is being painted at the racecourse.

At primitive Bellewstown there are only 2 phonelines. One has mysteriously stopped working that morning! On the remaining line a burly man named Benny has taken a call from a fictional relative, who is in dire straits in hospital. In an Oscar worthy performance he stays on the line for 25 minutes.

Bookies from Tipperary, Cork and Dublin are frantically trying to call in to lay off bets but can’t get through. The on-course bookies have no clue as to the money being bet around the country and without a penny down at trackside, the unfancied Yellow Sam goes off at 20 to 1 setting the whole market.

Barney sneaks into the middle of the racetrack to avoid suspicion. He has executed a beautifully simple plan perfectly and has gotten the value. Now all he can do is wait and see if luck is on his side.

Yellow Sam thunders home by 2.5 lengths and Curley who bet all his 15k savings at 20 to 1 has won 300,000 Irish pounds - a cool $5 million in today’s money! Watch the full story here

WISDOM 💎

‘Sometimes there is no next time, no time-outs, no second chances. Sometimes it’s now or never.’

Alan Bennett

Tip 1 - A SMART PLAY ✅

Do the work. Be patient and disciplined. Then as Charlie Munger says, you need the ‘willingness to bet heavily when the odds are extremely favourable.’ This applies to many things in life.

Tip 2 - AVOID 🚩

Being reckless. Take big risks when the moment is right, but don’t risk everything.

Tip 3 - ACTION 💪

Is there a great bet on the table in your life? How would you explain to your future self, that you didn’t take the shot?

“A ship in harbour is safe, but that is not what ships are built for.”

William G.T. Shedd